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2008-2010 Research Projects
Population Composition, Geographic Distribution, and Natural Hazards: Vulnerability in the Coastal Regions of Puerto Rico
Dr. Havidan Rodriguez is the PI for R-122-1-04. Given its geographic location and climatological conditions, Puerto Rico is highly susceptible to natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, floods, tsunamis, and earthquakes). Hurricanes San Ciriaco (1899), San Felipe (1928), San Ciprián (1932), Santa Clara (1956), Hugo (1989), and Georges (1998), had a significant social and economic impact on the Island’s population and economy. This project produced GIS layers out of normally isolated information, which showed changing social and demographic patterns in Puerto Rico. These changes indicate the need for emergency management to plan accordingly. There has been a significant increase in population density, in the proportion of the elderly and physically disabled population, and an increasing concentration of residents in flood and/or landslide prone areas, especially, along the coastline. According to the Insurance Commissioner’s Office, as of June 2003, 160,000 families were living in flood prone areas in Puerto Rico, of which 43,568 (27.2%) did not have flood insurance. These factors have contributed to the increasing vulnerability to natural hazards on the Island. The primary goal of the project was to understand how these and other factors contribute to the vulnerability of the Puerto Rican population living in coastal regions, how they have changed from 1990 to 2000, and how risk and vulnerability vary according to different social, economic, and demographic variables.
During the course of the research team accomplished the following:
- Storm Surge limits were digitized and converted into shape file formats for use in GIS applications.
- GIS based maps integrating coastal flooding, 2000 census, topographic, built infrastructures, and satellite data for all of Puerto Rico were created.
- Tsunami flooding data was integrated into the maps.
- Based on GIS flood and demographic data estimates were made of the number of people and housing units threatened or exposed to tsunamis and storm surge in Puerto Rico at the census block level of resolution. This significantly reduces problems associated with aggregation effects present in previous work on these issues in the United States wherein. Census tracts were used for estimation.
- Jenniffer Santos has completed the estimation of the first version of the aforementioned vulnerability to storm surge flooding for Puerto Rico. This is an additive index that includes population density and 10 other variables considered to be important determinants of social vulnerability by the literature on disasters.
- Jenniffer Santos completed her master’s thesis titled “Development, Vulnerability and Natural Disasters in Puerto Rico” in the Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice at the University of Delaware. For her thesis, Jenniffer generated and used a significant proportion of the data and methods of the Sea Grant project.
The above accomplishments had the following impacts:
- The Disaster Research Center at the University of Delaware has purchased published on the internet, in an interactive format, the vulnerability maps that were developed. The maps were published and are available at http://www.udel.edu/DRC/DDST. The internet based tool is called the Disaster Decision Support Tool. The web site serves free information which can be used by any group or municipality to respond to emergencies. The details of this service were recently shared at the 10th annual emergency management conference held in Dorado, Puerto Rico May 21-23, 2008.
- The infrastructure and maps developed as part of this effort have played an important role in the Puerto Rico Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, (Christa G. von Hillebrandt, PI) which led NOAA to declare Mayagüez as a Tsunami Ready City in March 2006. The same effort is currently in progress for the town of Añasco.
- The development of the sampling frame is underway and will be the basis for a survey of evacuation behavior in Puerto Rico to be financed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers.
- Jenniffer Santos participated in the Puerto Rico Student Led Test Bed of the NSF Engineering Research Center (ERC) for the Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA). This interdisciplinary research effort will incorporate the data and maps developed as part of the Sea Grant project.
- Researchers from the University of Delaware’s (UDEL) Coastal Community Development Program have asked us to meet with them to discuss how our research can be developed and implemented for coastal communities in Delaware. The Coastal Community Development Program focuses on the challenges and difficulties that coastal communities (primarily Sussex County) in Delaware are confronting. Quite similar to the case of Puerto Rico, coastal communities in Delaware have experienced significant population growth, continued residential and commercial development, and the continued expansion of the tourism industry. Consequently, there are increasing concerns about the impact of this growth on coastal communities. As a result of this collaboration, a number of projects are being developed to focus on recommendations for the enhancement of these communities.
- Finally, it is important to highlight that the UPR Sea Grant program authorized Dr. Rodríguez to use some of the UDEL-DRC Sea Grant funding to study the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. The DRC team traveled to some of the most affected areas in India and Sri Lanka. The team engaged in a two-week field research expedition that yielded important and perishable data on disaster preparedness, response, and recovery from this devastating tsunami. The team visited and extensive number of fishing and coastal communities in both India and Sri Lanka. Consequently, a significant number of presentations, reports, and research articles were published (see publication and presentation section below), which recognized the funding provided by the UPR Sea Grant Program (also see http://www.udel.edu/DRC/tsunami/index.html).
Publications
Rodriguez, H., Wachtendorf, T., Kendra, J. and Trainor, J. (2005). “The Great Sumatra Earthquake and the Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 26, 2004: A Preliminary Assessment of Societal Impacts and Consequences.” Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) Newsletter, Report No. 4. May 2005, Vol. 39, No. 5:1-7.
Rodriguez, H., Wachtendorf, T., Kendra, J., and Trainor, J. (March 2006). “A Snapshot of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami: Societal Impacts and Consequences. Disaster Prevention and Management. Vol. 15, Issue No. 1:163-177.
Trainor, J., Rodriguez, H., Wachtendorf, T., and Kendra, J. (2005). “More than a Wave: Exploring the Social Impacts of the Indian Ocean Tsunami.” Natural Hazards Observer, May 2005, Vol. XXIX, No. 5:1-3.
Wachtendorf, T., Kendra, J.M., Rodriguez, H., and Trainor, J. (June, 2006). “The Social Impact and Consequences of the December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami: Observations from India and Sri Lanka.” Earthquake Spectra, Vol. 22, No. S3:S693-S714.
Thesis
Santos-Hernández, J. 2007. Development, Social Vulnerability, and Disasters in the West Coast of Puerto Rico. M.A. Thesis. Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice, University of Delaware.
Planned publications
Díaz, Rodríguez and Santos, refereed journal article analyzing vulnerability to storm surge and tsunami flooding in Mayagüez, Puerto Rico. |
