NOAA Releases 2010 Hurricane Outlooks

Key Points

• Atlantic Basin - NOAA predicts an "active to extremely active" hurricane season, with a 70 percent probability of 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes, of which three to seven could be major hurricanes.

The following information for the Atlantic basin was released at a news conference at 10 am EDT Thursday May 27 at the National Press Club in Washington DC.

NOAA Expects a Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

An "active to extremely active" hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued today by the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in Camp Spring, Maryland. NOAA's 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for an 85 percent chance of an above normal season. The outlook indicates only a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

• 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:

• Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
• Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.
• High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.

An updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begin on June 1 and runs through November 30.

Click here to see the Atlantic hurricane outlook press release.
Click here to view the full outlook from CPC.